During last week’s NACAC national conference, I had numerous conversations with chief enrollment officers about what the future holds for private colleges and universities. There is a definite consternation about what the coming year is going to bring to everyone, especially in light of the economy. One veteran shared with his dinner companions that private colleges have experienced a boom and that the private college pricing bubble is about the burst. Those colleges that are tuition driven, have low endowments, and have no plan for the future are now going to experience some enrollment busts, but no one sees any type of bailout for them.

Ironically, today’s blog posting from The Motley Fool at Fool.com raises the question, “Is Tuition the Next Bubble to Pop ?” I encourage everyone to read this analysis for a dose of reality. Writer Todd Wenning states his case and then asserts, “At some point, the tuition bubble has to give. It’s simply unsustainable for universities to continue to raise tuition 6% per year, and it’s a situation that college presidents need to address immediately.”

Today’s Wall Street Journal had an article that included one of Warren Buffett’s famous quotes: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked.” The Oracle of Omaha’s quote is obviously pertinent to today’s financial marketplace, but it has relevance to higher education too. These days the tide is low and there is lots of institutional exposure to very real market conditions. And unfortunately, the combination of individuals and institutions swimming naked during the past several decades may mean fewer swimmers in the near future. The deep water has been a safe haven for swimmers, but it only served to mask some real problems that are now going to have to be addressed. Hold on to your clothes.

Social networking web sites are taking away your message control—but you do have ways to cope with this phenomenon.

A few months ago, we talked with Charlene Li, the Forrester Research analyst who co-authored Groundswell, for our Spring 2008 issue of The Lawlor Review (incidentally, this means we scooped Fast Company magazine, which featured an interview with Li in its June 2008 issue). She says colleges and universities should view social media as an opportunity rather than as a threat, and we agree completely.

Consider this chart, developed by Pete Blackshaw of The ClickZ Network:

Social technologies give colleges and universities the “enormous potential to drive deep, sustainable bonds” (as Blackshaw puts it) with all of their constituents. Just as that terminology suggests, it’s a communal exchange—one that requires you to give up on top-down messaging and instead join the conversational fray. It may be worth giving up some control so you can become part of the groundswell.

Moody’s Investors Service issued a report last week called “Private College and University Medians,” based on fiscal year 2007 financial data and Fall 2007 enrollment data from 267 (95 percent) of its rated private colleges and universities. As The Chronicle of Higher Education (subscription required) has reported, Moody’s remains cautious about the outlook for fiscal years 2008 and 2009 despite the sector’s improvement in key credit factors for 2007, given recent pressure on investment performance, ambiguity in the student loan market, and a substantially weaker economic environment. Our examination of the report reveals these figures for 2007 among the private institutions rated by Moody’s:

• Median yield rate remained relatively constant at 31.1 percent
• Median enrollment grew 1.3 percent
• Median net tuition per student rose 5.8 percent to $17,635
• Total tuition discount rate decreased slightly to 29.9 percent

However, Moody’s warns that future tuition revenue growth will experience significant pressures due to “the impact of tightening lending standards in the student loan market (for private loans), less access to home equity as a source of tuition payment, and weaker consumer confidence.” This analysis echoes what “Marketplace Money” economics editor Chris Farrell and other presenters told our Summer Seminar attendees last month, as you can see in the June 2008 Lawlor Focus.

Summer Seminar, held June 12-13 in Minneapolis, continued its reputation of providing college presidents, chief enrollment officers, chief financial officers and chief marketing officers with market intelligence that was enlightening, illuminating and, in many cases, humbling. Some participants commented that after hearing portions of the seminar content, one might be inclined to have a behavioral therapist address the group, but as presenter Jon McGee noted, "We are providing market intelligence so that the colleges in attendance can market intelligently."

The schools that may need the therapists are the ones not paying attention to the trends and behaviors that are influencing the marketplace. And, planning accordingly.

Summer Seminar consistently provides content and ideas that are substantive and relevant. Presenters and participants actively engage in strategic conversations about the art and science of marketing. The content may not be what we want to hear, but hearing it and preparing to deal with it can be pretty therapeutic.

We'll be posting photos of the event to the Summer Seminar web site soon, and a full summary of all presentations will be published in the fall issue of The Lawlor Review.

Last week I presented to over 80 faculty and department heads at one of the Council of Independent Colleges' (CIC) Summer Workshops. The overall workshop was titled "Advancing the Department," and my portion of the workshop was focused entirely on marketing.

Twenty years ago when I started The Lawlor Group, marketing and any of its agents were marginalized. At the CIC presentation, as one faculty member responded (honestly, I might add) to my question about what word you associatewith marketing by answering, "Evil!", I thought to myself we have all come a long way. After all, although there may still be some lingering negative perceptions and genuine misunderstandings about what marketing is, we were all gathered together to talk about marketing and how we can get more students to learn more about individual academic departments and the accompanying opportunities.

The fact is, we are all really engaged in acting on the ancient Greeks' charge to "know thyself" and to then shine a light on the distinctive qualities of each individual experience.

This is particularly important when it comes to academic offerings and the student-faculty experience. As I noted in my presentation, most students come to college undecided. They aren't certain about what they want to major in or perhaps simply have multiple interests. Many students change their major, too. If the academy is in the business of helping people "know themselves" and pursue a "life of learning," then it is important that the information about the different academic areas is easy to find, accurate, relevant and inspiring. That information needs to be accessible and effectively communicated via a variety of institutional touchpoints, especially the college or university web site.

Integrating relevant content about academic departments isn't evil, it is absolutely imperative. Some people may even say it's academic.

Last week my colleague Amy Foster and I interviewed authors James H. Gilmore and B. Joseph Pine II for the fall issue of The Lawlor Review. It turned out to be an authentic and memorable experience.

For those unfamiliar with Gilmore and Pine, they are the authors of the national bestseller The Experience Economy and have just released their newest book, Authenticity: What Consumers Really Want (Harvard Business School Press). They are also the co-founders of Strategic Horizons LLP, a self-described "thinking studio that helps companies design new ways to add value."

We find their message of authenticity very relevant to today's college marketplace. In fact, we have been talking about authenticity for years, but Gilmore and Pine have much louder voices in the marketplace than Lawlor.

Prospective students and families are seeking real, genuine and authentic college experiences. In the process of discerning what is real or fake, students and families utilize a variety of resources to learn about a college. Students are looking for fit, or as Gilmore and Pine shared with us, "People buy because of personal conformity. Individuals say 'I like that. I am like that.' This process of buying ultimately ends up being a conformance to self image."
What people see, hear, read and experience shape their perceptions of authenticity. All of those sensory cues are brand touchpoints that speak to institutional authenticity. If these touchpoints lack consistency, they invite questioning of the authenticity and legitimacy of the institutional promise and experience.

As we have noted before, students today have wonderful BS barometers and demand authenticity. Offering and communicating the real and authentic qualities of an institution on a consistent basis at all touchpoints creates a brand of trust. As the inside book cover of Authenticity states, "Satisfy consumers' demands for authenticity—across every kind of offering—and you'll capture their hearts, minds, and dollars."

Amidst the cacophony of frenzied and cynical consumers, the brandscape of higher education can be an overwhelming journey of discovery and decision. Authenticity, however, creates genuine market distinction and is an important brand management tenet for colleges and universities to implement with organizational intent and institutional purpose. I was recently going through my proverbial pile of magazine reading and came across the subject of authenticity in an outstanding article by Bill Breen in the May 2007 issue of Fast Company magazine. Titled "Who Do You Love?", Breen discusses the importance of institutions' developing their own primary source codes for being authentic. Noting that "authentic" is derived from the Greek authentikos, which means original, he says colleges constantly struggle with trying to be original or finding a way to communicate their own originality. Breen cites John Grant's comment in his book The New Marketing Manifesto: "Authenticity is the benchmark against which all brands are now judged."

As we all move forward with our marketing efforts, the promise of being heard and recognized will increase significantly if we speak with originality and authenticity.

John's "Ten Trends " presentation at the Council for Independent Colleges (CIC) conference back in January continues to have a ripple effect! The importance of word of mouth to the stealth marketplace was discussed in this week's Tech Therapy podcast from the Chronicle of Higher Education. Reporter Scott Carlson and technology consultant Warren Arbogast also discussed not-so-natural affinities between admissions, alumni and IT departments, as well as the need for colleges and universities to have a "master plan" for the virtual campus (in addition to the physical campus). You'll enjoy this 12-minute conversation between Scott and Warren at the Chronicle's web site.

Next Wednesday, May 14, at 1 p.m. (Central) I'll be co-hosting a webcast with Lance Merker of OmniUpdate called "Signs It's Time for a Web Site Redesign." As one of the most important communication vehicles in your overall integrated marketing strategy, your institutional web site must be relevant, dynamic, engaging and meet the needs of myriad audiences. Inherent in that strategy is knowing when your site needs more than just regular maintenance—it's recognizing the signs that a major redesign is in order. However, such an undertaking requires a substantial commitment to human and financial resources, and the decision to redesign shouldn't be taken lightly. During this session, we'll discuss when a full site redesign is appropriate, in addition to the wrong reasons for a redesign (and if not a redesign, then what?). Registration is free, so I hope you'll join us!

UPDATE (May 15): Thanks to everyone who made it yesterday! For those of you who were not able to participate, you can view a recording of the webcast.