Trends for 2012 - Trend Four

The pool of high school graduates is shrinking, and the segments of the population that are growing are some of the same segments that have been traditionally underserved by residential colleges: racial and ethnic minorities, adult learners, and veterans. Meanwhile, the supply side of higher education is growing, thanks to increased capacity via online courses, the rise of for-profit institutions, and new open courseware. With so many options, higher education consumers are “shopping around” for their most cost-effective option, forcing traditional colleges and universities into financial aid bidding wars.

• The number of high school graduates peaked in 2008-09 and will decline through 2014-15, still not recovering its peak through 2020-21. (NACAC)
• Between 2009 and 2020, college enrollment is projected to increase 9% for 18- to 24-year-olds, 21% for 25- to 34-year-olds, and 16% for students 35 years old and over. (National Center for Education Statistics)
• The number of white students in grades 9-12 in the year 2020 will be 5.1% fewer than there were in 1994, while the number of Hispanic students will have increased 174% during the same period. (College Board)
• Only 17.7% of blacks and 16.6% of native-born Hispanics ages 25 and older have attained a bachelor’s degree, compared to 31.1% of whites. (Pew Research Center)
• Only 25% of all college students attend full time at residential colleges; 75% of all college students are commuters. (Complete College America)
• 38% of full-time students age 35 and older and 11% of all full-time students attend for-profit institutions. (National Center for Education Statistics)
• Between Fall 2005 and Fall 2009, enrollment at for-profit institutions increased 83.1%, compared to 13.7% at public institutions and 9% at private nonprofit institutions. (National Center for Education Statistics)
• Online enrollments increased 10.1% from Fall 2009 to Fall 2010, while total enrollment growth in higher education was only 0.6%. (Sloan Consortium)
• 51.9% of first-year students in 2010 attended a college located 100 miles or less from their home. (CIRP)
• Military and veteran students make up 4% of undergraduates; 13% of them attend four-year private nonprofit institutions, versus 9% of nonmilitary independent students. (National Center for Education Statistics)
• Half of all full-time students at four-year public and private nonprofit colleges and universities attend an institution with published tuition and fees of $9,936 or more; only 15.3% attend an institution with tuition and fees of $30,000 or more. (College Board)
• The average tuition discount rate for first-time, full-time freshmen at four-year private nonprofit institutions reached an all-time high of 42.4% in 2010, compared to 38% in 2005. (NACUBO)
• 56% of students at moderately selective four-year private nonprofit institutions received merit aid in 2007-08, compared to 35% at more selective ones and 28% at less selective ones. (National Center for Education Statistics)
• The percentage of grant recipients (both merit and need-based) from the top quartile of family income increased from 13% to 18% between 1995-96 and 2007-08, while the percentage from the bottom quartile of family income decreased from 41% to 37%. (National Center for Education Statistics)
• The average institutional yield rate of admitted students who enrolled was 41% in 2010. (NACAC)

Opportunity: Differentiate.

Colleges and universities only intensify their own commodification when they try to be all things to everyone. Those institutions that focus on their strengths, identify ways to meet needs specific to their market areas, and create distinction from their competitors will benefit.

Thoughts? Let us know on the blog.
Part of: Trends 2012