What Will May 1 Yield?

"In college admissions it is the year of unprecedented uncertainty," declared the opening sentence of a Baltimore Sun article about higher education institutions that have "walked a tightrope as they tried to estimate how many students to accept." Similarly, a Philadelphia Inquirer article stated, "This year, it's a bigger guessing game than ever," as some colleges and universities are having to "tear up decades-old models that allowed them to accurately estimate how many students who were admitted would actually come." This month, we at The Lawlor Group are hearing these sentiments echoed by admission officers on the frontline, as well, while they wait for accepted students to evaluate their financial aid packages (and the worth of the educational investment their families will need to make) prior to the May 1 deposit deadline. To paraphrase, we're getting feedback such as, "Everyone is on edge about yield," "Deposits have been painfully slow," and "I've never heard people feeling so nervous before."

The cause of such uncertainty and anxiety is a unique confluence of marketplace realities, policy trends and economic conditions that are exacerbating each other:

The Numbers—According to WICHE data , the number of high school graduates is peaking this year, which is resulting in more college applicants than ever before. What's more, students are submitting applications to multiple institutions, perhaps influenced by articles in the mainstream media that leave the impression it's more difficult than ever to gain acceptance to college. When a student applies and is accepted to multiple institutions, each institution is left guessing its rank on the student's list, thus making yield more difficult to pinpoint.

The Tweaks—Recent policy adjustments by some of the most selective colleges and universities are expected to have a trickle-down effect throughout the higher education sector. For example, the president of Vassar College predicts that new financial aid policies such as those at Harvard and Yale that particularly benefit upper middle-class families will cause the wealthiest students to be bumped from these schools and then enroll at next-tier private colleges and universities instead. Elite institutions that eliminated Early Decision this year have also introduced uncertainty into the equation, since top students who would otherwise apply ED are instead applying to multiple institutions, creating stronger-than-normal applicant pools for other colleges and universities. (See The New York Times' comprehensive account of financial aid policy's evolution over the past few years.)

The Jitters—The current fiscal climate is an especially sharp cause of concern for the families of college-bound students this year—not only because the overall economy is becoming recessionary even as tuition costs continue to rise, but because the credit crunch is making it more difficult for families to secure student loans. As Robert B. Reich (former U.S. Secretary of Labor) put it, many students are finding "they can't afford the tuitions and fees because family incomes are flat or falling, and families can't refinance their homes or extract more equity out of them, and banks won't lend them anymore money." Therefore, price sensitivity may be playing a larger role than ever in families' deliberations this year.

In the News

In February's issue of the Focus, we asked whether colleges and universities are now reaching a tipping point regarding affordability, such that families' resistance to paying their net tuition is no longer due to a lack of willingness, but rather a lack of ability. As that affordability tipping point is reached by the families of more and more college-bound students, perhaps it's inevitable that these families will gravitate toward affirmations that college "isn't worth it"—such as the recent NPR segment on "An Argument Against Going to College." In this context, the recent brouhaha between Charles Miller (chair of the Commission on the Future of Higher Education) and the College Board over whether the higher education industry systematically exaggerates the lifetime earnings premium of a college degree becomes somewhat alarming—as a possible harbinger of evolving "it's just not worth it these days" arguments.

Did You Know?

Michael Wesch, the Kansas State University professor who originated the viral video "Web 2.0 … The Machine is Us/ing Us," has another YouTube hit on his hands. This time, his Introduction to Cultural Anthropology class' video production, "A Vision of Students Today," summarizes "how they learn, what they need to learn, their goals, hopes, dreams, what their lives will be like, and what kinds of changes they will experience in their lifetime"—and, in a stroke of irony, demonstrates the value of a small private college education.